Enterprise Planning Mobile

Smarter Scenario Planning in IBP: Leveraging AI, SHAP Insights, and Model Reliability for Enhanced Decision-Making

Nikita Raj

Nikita Raj

Supply Chain Consultant

3 min read
September 07, 2025

Effective planning today requires far more than disconnected forecasts and isolated spreadsheets. Enterprises face increasing complexity, from rapid shifts in demand and supply chain disruptions to evolving market pressures. Integrated Business Planning (IBP) answers this challenge by unifying functional plans into a coherent process supported by advanced data analytics and collaboration tools.

IBP by CT Plan Apps delivers this capability through a connected platform that empowers planners to assess multiple scenarios, share trusted data, and accelerate decision-making aligned with strategic goals.

Why Modern IBP Needs Scenario Intelligence

Despite progress, many IBP implementations lag in responsiveness and flexibility necessary for uncertain environments. Traditional models often rely on fixed forecasts that don’t sufficiently consider variability, risk, or opportunity. Scenario intelligence adds this critical dimension: enabling enterprises to rapidly simulate alternative futures, compare outcomes, and evaluate resource trade-offs with precision.

IBP by CT Plan Apps rises to this need, providing a unified data foundation built natively on Databricks and an interface powered by Sigma for intuitive, real-time scenario analysis.

AI-Enabled Flexible Scenario Planning

IBP by CT Plan Apps enables planners to select forecasting models that best fit product lines, regions, or customer segments. Key models include:

  • XGBoost for capturing trends and seasonal cycles
  • ARIMA for capturing trends and seasonal cycles
  • Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) for modeling complex temporal relationships

This model flexibility ensures customized forecasts, overcoming the limitations of static, one-size-fits-all approaches commonly used in traditional IBP systems.

Explainability with SHAP Values for Clear Forecast Insights

AI advances forecasting from mere prediction to insightful understanding. ML models analyze historical data to reveal how promotions influence demand, allowing comparison of different marketing strategies for highest ROI. Explainability techniques like SHAP values clarify key forecast drivers like price changes, seasonality, or supply factors empowering leaders with transparent insights that enhance trust and decision confidence.

Continuous Model Monitoring for Reliable Forecasts

To maintain accuracy, IBP by CT Plan Apps integrates statistical monitoring techniques such as Population Stability Index (PSI), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, and Chi-square test. When data drift is detected, the system triggers automatic retraining to keep forecasts aligned with current market realities.

Seamless Integration Into Daily Planning Workflows

AI-powered scenario planning integrates smoothly into day-to-day operations. Planners adjust assumptions, test alternatives, and explore "what-if" analyses efficiently without duplicative efforts. Executives gain comprehensive visibility into risk and opportunity, fostering proactive decisions that reduce reaction time to market changes.

Visualizing Scenario Planning: IBP by CT Plan Apps

Below is an example of the IBP by CT Plan Apps scenario planning dashboard. Planners apply ML models by SKU, location, and channel, comparing baseline and AI-enhanced forecasts dynamically.

CT Plan Apps dashboard

Driving Resilience Through Probabilistic Forecasting and Model Transparency

IBP by CT Plan Apps evolves beyond forecasting a single expected future by incorporating ML-generated probabilistic scenarios, explainability, and continuous monitoring. The platform enhances the ability to anticipate demand shifts, optimize resources, and bolster organizational resilience amid uncertainty and complex market dynamics